ZOMG! part 2

The Washington Nationals are crazy. No seriously, what the fuck (WTF) are they thinking? This is one of the dumbest contracts I have ever seen. They are paying Jayson Werth 18 million dollars a year until he is 39 years old. Jayson Werth. 7 years. 126 million dollars. For real. The deal is so stupid in fact that Scott Boras didn’t even bother shopping the offer to other teams because it was so much higher than any other team had offered. One GM, told Ken Rosenthal it was “absolutely bat—- crazy”. Danny Knobler says one American League GM “nearly fell over when I told him the terms”. Keith Law called it “irresponsible”.

Carl Crawford probably pissed all over the front of his pants when he heard this news. I have a hard time imagining what the contract he is going to sign will look like now. I have to think he is going to get at least 160 million now. The MLB network had a hot stove predictions question that asked how many nine figure contracts would be given out this offseason. Both Mitch Williams and whoever the other idiot was in this segment said there would be none. I remember thinking 2 to myself (Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee). I did not imagine that Jayson Werth would make it 3. This contract is the 3rd largest contract ever signed by an outfielder, with only Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano receiving larger deals.

Ah, the memories…

Side note: How did that kid above turn into this guy?

Update: The Orioles announce they are not a big market club

Just kidding, they don’t need to announce that if you aren’t an idiot. As usual people are up in arms about the Orioles not signing every single free agent who signs with another team so far this offseason. In casual fans opinion we ought to be signing every single player available every offseason. They say remarkably stupid things like “It’s not my money, what do I care?”. Brilliant. I get it, numbers and math are above your comprehension level, it’s cool. Those of us who understand basic economic concepts know that the Baltimore Orioles cannot afford to spend with the big market clubs in their division, or some others around baseball. We simply do not have the market size or economic climate to do so. What’s that you say? Peter Angelos is rich? Yes, I am well aware of that. You do also realize that anyone who owns a sports team is rich too? Sports teams are an investment first and foremost to almost every single person who buys them. The only exception to this rule is probably Mark Cuban, who is awesome by the way. Peter Angelos and every other baseball owner bought their team to make money, plain and simple. Expecting Angelos to dip into his personal finances to fund his baseball team and operate at a loss is not realistic.

With all of that in mind, how can you not care what the team spends on it’s players? If you understand that they are operating within a specified payroll budget then you have to understand that you can’t afford to buy all of the best players every offseason. Only Boston and New York can operate like that. So let’s stop freaking out every time a big name signs elsewhere. We are not a team with the economic capability of competing with the big markets without hamstringing ourselves later. Can we do more than we currently are doing? Absolutely.

Andy MacPhail came onboard and stressed the need to build a solid team from within. He made two good trades and since then his record has been pretty awful. We’re not spending enough in the draft, we’re not spending an international free agents, we are short on scouts and our development is lacking. This is the real crime. These problems existed well before MacPhail entered the picture however, and we all know what the real problem is:

ZOMG!

Fallout from Orioles fans over the offseason at such an early stage is hilarious, I guess we should all be used to it by now since it happens every season. That said, I still find it funny again this season.

If you are looking for a few quick laughs, check out this link.

Adam Dunn has signed a 4 year, 54 million dollar deal with the White Sox. This is around what I expected him to sign for, and apparently for many O’s fans, it was an offer the Orioles should have beat. I’m not so sure.

The Orioles reportedly were in on Dunn and offered him what now looks like a token offer of 4 years/40 million. By no means is that a competitive offer that had any chance of landing Dunn. I know the Orioles aren’t going to spend big on free agents, most fans should know that by now too but it doesn’t stop them from losing their shit about it every fucking offseason. My problem is that the Orioles should just say that instead of pretending to be in on some “targets” and making silly offers. If you aren’t going to play the game, then just tell the fans that and don’t bother even making these token offers. I’m not even sure what they are trying to accomplish with them anyway. You know you aren’t getting Dunn for that offer, and you know announcing that offer isn’t going to please the fan base so I don’t see the endgame here.

What likely happened is they felt out Dunn to see if he was open to becoming a full time designated hitter, when they realized he wouldn’t they made an offer reflecting what they thought he was worth as a first baseman. If Dunn is insistent on playing the field I can understand a significantly lower offer and diminished interest from the Orioles. If I were signing Dunn, he wouldn’t even be allowed to bring a glove in the clubhouse with him. Yes, he is that bad. Adam Dunn holds a career -14.4 UZR/150 at 1B, a -11.2 in LF, and a staggering -52.6 in RF. Don’t like UZR? The Fielding Bible has Dun at totals of -34, -51, and -12 respectively in defensive runs saved at each position. There is no denying that Adam Dunn is a very talented offensive player but he simply cannot play defense…at all. He is so bad defensively that he takes away a great deal of his value at the plate by giving runs back with the glove. If the Orioles didn’t want to sign Dunn to play first I am okay with that, just don’t even tell me you made some bullshit offer. To put it another way: don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining.

The A’s…that’s right, the A’s…are reportedly close to signing Adrian Beltre to a 5 year contract. Call me skeptical. Either this is a serious surprise move by Beane or Scott Boras is using the media to drive up his clients price. He’s done that before right? Beltre is a guy I would be interested in but someone is going to sign him to a stupid contract. I would advocate something like a 4/60 deal for hi, but he has already beat that offer. I think it would take a 5 year deal worth about 90 million to bring him to Baltimore and that would be insanity.

For those of you calling for Andy MacPhail to resign over not signing big money free agents, I urge you to hold your breath for a GM to come in a spend the 120-150 million dollars on payroll I read people calling for constantly. I hope you can hold your breath for….forever. MacPhail isn’t the one standing in the way of the Baltimore Orioles becoming a top 3 spending team, simple economic concepts are. I just wish they would commit to being a top class organization somewhere. If you are no going to spend it on payroll, you better be an innovator in the amateur market…we apparently are doing nothing to bring us out of this. To win in the AL East you have to be the best team in baseball. If you aren’t the best in baseball at anything, then how are you going to make that possible?

All of that said, the offseason is still young and it can still be success. Missing out on Beltre and Adam Dunn doesn’t and shouldn’t make or break our offseason. No one should have been expecting to sign any of them anyway. Sign Derrek Lee, Trade for Mark Reynolds and JJ Hardy, re-sign Koji and another arm and I for one will be one happy camper.

Weak sauce

A lot has happened recently but we have been unable to post about all of it due to uncontrollable laughter after reading Derek Jeter’s contract demands. I seriously hope the Yankees let him test the market so he can see how much of an “insult” their original offer is.

As expected, the Orioles decided not to offer arbitration to Kevin Millwood. Millwood would have been likely to receive a salary much higher than the Orioles would have wanted to pay him and there was a very good chance he would have accepted the offer. They also decided against offering arbitration to Koji Uehara who had a much better case for it. Koji made 5 million dollars last season and while he pitched well when healthy, he was hurt for a good chunk of the year again and was converted from a starter to a reliever. He would have been unlikely to receive much of a raise if any. If he would have declined the offer and signed with another team the Orioles would have received a compensation pick in the upcoming draft, which is said to be the deepest draft in recent memory. I was originally furious about this decision but since it has occurred many media outlets have reported that it is well known that Koji would have accepted arbitration and the Orioles believe they will re-sign him anyway but to a smaller number than he would have been rewarded. If this occurs then the decision doesn’t look so bad, however if he does sign with another club I will switch back into “Beast Mode”.

This part still doesn’t look awesome though as the Orioles have failed year after year to acquire talent by manipulating the compensation system. The Orioles almost never offer arbitration to qualifying free agents, they don’t acquire qualifying players on expiring contracts (see Lopez, Felipe or Olivo, Miguel), and they frequently trade away players with expiring contracts who qualify for nothing (see Tejada, Miguel or Huff, Aubrey). If the Orioles want to compete while operating as a middle market team in the AL East they will need to start using draft compensation to their advantage. This goes along with “building from within”, which we are constantly reminded is what we are attempting to do. However, we don’t spend a lot of resources in the draft, we don’t attempt to gather more draft picks, and we don’t spend much in international amateur talent. I still don’t know what their plan really is.

The Orioles hired Willie Randolph to round out their coaching staff recently, so they no longer have that as an excuse for inactivity. I really can’t believe they haven’t re-signed Cesar Izturis yet, it’s amazing. Perhaps they are waiting to make the fans believe they actually looked around for other options? It’s coming everyone, don’t you worry.

The Orioles have been loosely linked to several free agents recently but their real interest level is being masked well and rumors have been few and far between. They were apparently very much in on Victor Martinez, who signed with the Tigers recently. The Orioles offer was reportedly 4 years and 48 million dollars. Thank you Detroit for saving us from ourselves this time. That contract would have been horrendous for the O’s. After the signing, Andy MacPhail indicated that Martinez was their top target this offseason. While I respect that they were able to identify a target and put an aggressive offer on the table, this would have been a terrible signing for the Orioles. Yes, Victor Martinez is a great hitter….for a catcher. The Orioles would have used Martinez primarily at first base and occasionally at catcher and DH. The league average OPS for first baseman in MLB last year was .802. Victor Martinez holds a career OPS mark of .838, this is not a masher we are talking about here. Victor Martinez would most likely be a slightly above average bat next year at first while providing what appears to be below average defense with it. On top of that, it is unlikely he would even be that good at ages 35 and 36 AND the Orioles would have had to surrender another second round draft pick. Bottom line, breaking the bank for Victor Martinez would have been a bad idea and I’m glad someone with more money to waste stepped up to jump on the grenade for us. Still, even knowing that it would have been a bad signing, it is a little disheartening to see that the Orioles can’t even get the players that they really want.

I just hope everyone will be as excited as me when the O’s sign Cesar Izturis, Ty Wigginton, and Lyle Overbay and then point to how the team played at the end of last year for hope. I’m not falling for that, and I doubt anyone else is either.

A few tidbits…

Ken Davidoff of Newsday writes that free agent “outfielder” Johnny Damon is “eyeing Baltimore” in a recent piece. I sincerely hope that the interest there is one sided if true at all. Damon is 37 years old, can’t play the field anymore and can’t hit for any power outside of the new Yankee Stadium in which anything hit in the air to the right side goes out. He also throws about as well as well as my grandmother does with her off hand, which would provide some entertainment if in fact the Orioles are even dumber than I think they are. Damon would be of no use to this team as he has no defensive position and he doesn’t hit nearly well enough to unseat Luke Scott. He is in clear decline and even if he posts similar numbers to last year he will most likely make a very expensive part time DH. The Orioles can’t possibly be interested right? On the other hand, it would seem to be a very typical O’s signing. An aging player who used to be pretty good but never great, now on his last legs coming to Baltimore to die like so many before him…

Derek Jeter’s agent is “baffled” by the Yankees tactics in their ongoing contract negotiations. Really guys? Really? You are baffled by a 3 year, 45 million dollar offer? I’m begging you to walk away from that and see what he gets offered on the open market if you honestly believe that to be some sort of insult. He would not come close to matching that. Derek Jeter was worth about 9 million dollars last year according to Fangraphs and he has been worth less than his actual salary in 7 of the last 9 seasons. He has already been overpaid a significant amount and the Yankees latest offer will still be a significant overpayment, but somehow it isn’t enough? Derek Jeter will be 37 years old for most of next year, he declined greatly last season both with the bat and the glove. I don’t care that he won another Gold Glove, he’s a big reason that award is now a joke, someone needs to help him beat his ego back and realize that whatever the Yankees decide to offer him is the best he is going to get. Whatever occurs, I hope it is the outcome that hurts the Yankees most. Unfortunately I know that money is no object to them and whatever they will do they will always be able to recover from it with a blank check.

The deadline for offering arbitration is fast approaching and I think it will be interesting to see what the Orioles do with Type B free agents Kevin Millwood and Koji Uehara. I would probably decline arbitration with Millwood due to the fear that he would accept. With a salary of 12 million last year it is likely he would get at least half of that in arbitration, which would be too much in my opinion. I would then offer arbitration to Uehara because I do not see any downside. If he accepts we get a solid reliever who will still be relatively cheap for another year and if he declines then we get a draft pick for compensation.

The Orioles are still rumored to be in on both Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy, and I am still firmly in the “Anyone but Izturis” camp. I can’t believe there are people seriously advocating we re-sign him. He was literally worth negative dollar values and less than a replacement player. He was one of the very worst players in MLB. The dude was a little above average in the field and a great hitter if you are looking for guys who make a ton of outs (The Orioles do).

I’m still hoping to hear some good news this offseason, but I have to say so far I haven’t heard anything that sounds too promising…

In closing I leave you with this, I hate Derek Jeter.

Thank Jeebus!

According to Jeff Zrebiec at the Sun, the Orioles are pursuing both Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy. I don’t know if I would like giving up David Hernandez for Bartlett, but it’s nice to see they aren’t settling for Izturis. Anyone but Izturis!

And his name is…

DAN UGGLA!

Well, one of my offseason suggestions is now off the table. Dan Uggla was traded to the Braves for the baseball equivalent of a case of beer. I hope the Orioles at least made a phone call because it would be awful hard for me to believe we couldn’t easily beat an offer of Omar Fucking Infante and relief prospect Michael Dunn. Experts agree with me that that seems to be a very weak return for a solid player like Uggla. Really Florida? You ask St. Louis for Colby Rasmus and then take this as a consolation prize? I don’t get it.

I’ll chalk this one up as a missed opportunity, but I’m sure the O’s weren’t even involved.

We’re not dead…yet.

Hello everyone, yes it’s been a while since we have graced the interwebs. There’s a billion different reasons why our posts tailed off as the season went along so I won’t bore you with the details. (Hint: subtract 1 billion)

It’s offseason time and there is plenty to talk about since the Orioles expect to be very “active”. I use active in quotes because they were expected to be active last offseason too and we ended up with awful, but totally expected, versions of Miguel “I’m actually 47″ Tejada and Garrett “Squints” Atkins. My concerns that they had both fallen off a cliff were confirmed and my concerns about the durability of Mike Gonzalez were also confirmed. The season was a disaster and basically everything that could have gone wrong did. Once everyone was healthy however, the Orioles showed that they were not as epically bad as their first half indicated. Most people want to blame the turnaround on the arrival of Buck Showalter as manager, but they would be wrong… mostly. The clear reason for the turnaround the Orioles experienced during the second half of the season was due to an exponential improvement in the starting pitching. Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen all experienced dominant second halves at the same time, while Jake Arrieta and Kevin Millwood both pitched admirably as well. The healthy returns of Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez created a bullpen that was also much better than terrible in the second half. Despite the winning, the offense remained awful but we prevented enough runs that it didn’t seem to be consistent with the second half. Still, the Orioles carry obvious holes at 1B, 3B, SS, and possibly LF going into the offseason… so what will they do?

1B -First base will be a “priority” this season just as it was last year. The free agent market is actually pretty deep with first basemen but no elite talent is available this year. Elite talent is most likely not in the Orioles price range anyway. Casual fans can scream all they want that we should be buying every free agent available but the fact is Baltimore cannot spend with the big boys. My preferred route is always to trade for young talent that will be around for a free years rather than short term veterans but I think the Orioles go the latter route here. My prediction is they sign one of Adam LaRoche, Derek Lee, Lance Berkman or Carlos Pena to man the 1 bag. My preferences of those  possibilities would be Derek Lee or Lance Berkman, who were both bothered by nagging injuries all year but have shown elite level performance that the other two could only dream about.

3B – The Josh Bell catastrophe last year proved he isn’t ready for the big stage yet, he also may have proved he never will be. A trade seems to be the only likely scenario to get a legitimate upgrade at the hot corner. Adrian Beltre is the only legitimate option in free agency and Baltimore will be priced out of that race before the first offer is even made. I would love to see the Orioles get creative and acquire a talented player such as Alex Gordon or Mark Reynolds, who both may be available. Perhaps they could also try to convince Dan Uggla to move to third base which I wouldn’t hate. It’s unlikely they will be willing to pay Uggla what he wants for an extension however. What I expect the Orioles to actually do is something incredible short sighted and lazy. So they will probably re-sign Ty Wigginton or sign his statistical twin Jorge Cantu, another possibility may be Bill Hall who I may actually prefer out of those three dreadful choices. I really hope I am wrong here.

SS – Cesar Izturis was bad last year. I mean don’t get me wrong, Cesar Izturis has always been bad… but last year was reallyawful even for him. He was the worst hitting regular player in major league baseball last year. Let me stress that again: the worst hitter in major league baseball. Yes, he played slightly above average defense at short but his bat was so epically bad that he was worth less than a replacement player according to WAR. No Belanger references please, I know people love to defend a shortstop who can catch a ball like it’s still 1964. Izturis isn’t in the same stratosphere as Belanger defensively and when compared to peers in his era Belanger was a better hitter too. The comparison is a stretch to say the least. Cesar Izturis is a bad major league baseball player. Once again a trade seems to be the best option here just as it is with 3B. This will become more and more common now with teams realizing the value of young talent and locking them up earlier and earlier. Free agent classes will continue to get thinner and thinner which is why the Orioles must get better in the amateur realm all around. What I would like to see them do is sign J.J. Hardy if he is non-tendered by the Twins but that seems unlikely. They should explore his availability either way. Gordon Beckham is also appearing in trade rumors and he would be my number one target here if true. Yes, he hasn’t played shortstop because of the presence of Alexei Ramirez but all indications are he can still play it. The Orioles could also look into the availability of Jason Bartlett or Reid Brignac in the Rays crowded middle infield situation. What I expect the Orioles will actually do is to re-sign Izturis, despite a plethora of better options in the trade and freee agent markets, because it is cheap and lazy. Hell, there are probably any number of minor league free agents that would be better options as well. I really hope I am wrong here too, but I am nearly 100 percent certain that this is the way it will go down.

LF – Some may disagree with me that LF is a hole going into the season. I know most of use want to believe that we can get a legitimate corner outfielder out of Nolan Reimold or Felix Pie but I’m convinced that we cannot. Reimold’s bat still has potential but even when healthy and hitting he is nothing short of a butcher in the outfield. He should not be guaranteed anything coming into this year. If he earns his way back onto the team that will be a great problem to have but we can’t expect anything. Felix Pie is a real enigma, his talent is obvious but he only shows it in small doses. He went backwards with the progress he made in the plate discipline department in 2009 and went up to the plate with the Adam Jones strategy last season. He also has real problems with durability and even at his best his numbers play much better in center than they do in left. Felix also plays better defense in center according to UZR, though he plays good defense anywhere in the outfield. I would like to see either Jones or Pie moved, preferably Jones because his value will be much higher, but that is for a different post. There are two elite free agents (Werth and Crawford) available for left field this offseason but both are likely out of the Orioles’ price range. That leaves a thin crop headed by Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell, and Brad Hawpe. I also can’t see any of the free agents available to be a huge upgrade here. What I would like to see if for the Orioles to acquire both a first baseman and another hitter than could DH, they could then move Luke Scott back to left where he wants to play and where he is actually pretty good despite lacking the athleticism of the other two options. He is clearly the best offensive player. What I expect the Orioles will actually do is nothing, they will continue to run out whoever is healthy out of Pie and Reimold.

To fill in other areas I am hoping the Orioles re-sign Koji Uehara, he has shown that he can be a dominant reliever when available and we are locking backend types right now. I just hope they don’t repeat past mistakes by throwing tons of years and money at the bullpen. That is always a mistake and I hope they have learned that lesson by now. I could also see them being interested in a veteran starter like Jon Garland, but I am hoping they stay out of that market. I would prefer they go into the year with a rotation consisting of Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta, and Tillman with Zach Britton ready to step up when needed. Unless of course they trade Guthrie, which would be a great idea with him coming off of a rebound season. I would also not be opposed to taking fliers on a reclamation project like Erik Bedard or Rich Harden and trying them out in the bullpen to preserve their arms… Hey, it worked for Kerry Wood. It would be low risk with the potential for high reward if they can be remotely healthy.

I expect the Orioles to be far less than active and to make a few small moves with nothing ground breaking or creative being done. That’s always been Andy MacPhail’s modus operandi. I think we will see some small scale free agency moves with very little trading and we will continue not to be competitive in the amateur market in comparison to the rest of the AL Beast. I see another season with an absolute ceiling of 85 wins, with a more likely range somewhere within 75-82. Once again, I hope I am wrong.

Jake Arrieta: asshole

I didn’t get to see last night’s game due to a prior engagement but after watching the highlights I have decided that Jake Arrieta is clearly an asshole. After Carl Crawford beat out what would have been a double play for probably anyone else in baseball, Arrieta was furious and decided to take it out on Crawford’s genitals.

Watch it here.

I know it makes me a douche to laugh at people getting hurt but seriously… that’s funny.

Stop it! You’re killing Josh Bell!

Josh Bell has had 11 at bats since July 3. Yes, I said 11…in the last 18 days. That’s exactly what you want from a top prospect who struggled for half the season and just started to turn it around, you have to stop him from playing immediately.

Seriously, Josh Bell was the #38 prospect in all of baseball coming into this season and the second ranked third baseman behind only Brett Wallace, who is now a first baseman. This is how he gets treated? We have yanked him back and forth between Norfolk in a matter of days and sit him on the bench collecting splinters. This doesn’t make sense, good organizations do not call up their top prospects and then not play them. Why are they doing this? Lots of people want to know the answer to this question, so Roch Kubatko asked interim manager Juan Samuel about it.

“Tejada was signed to be the third baseman for this ballclub, and Tejada likes to play,” Samuel said. “The times that we’ve been able to have Tejada out of the lineup or DH, we have to talk to him. He earned that right with all he’s done in the game. We are taking that into consideration, that Tejada’s the third baseman, he’s going to play. And the times that we feel like we might need to get him at DH and had Josh Bell in there, that’s what we’ve done. But Tejada has earned the right to play.”

Wow dude, seriously if this is the best answer you can come up with don’t answer the question at all. It would have been less ridiculous if Samuel took the recorder from Roch and farted into it. Tejada wants to play? Of course he wants to play, what player in major league league baseball doesn’t want to play? Garrett Atkins probably loved to play and he was a veteran, by Samuel’s logic he should still be in the lineup everyday. So we sit our best positional prospect, the guy who we hope to be our third baseman of the future, for a 36 year old veteran sporting a .686 OPS and playing below average defense on a one year contract? REALLY?!?!

It would make sense if they were trying to build up trade value or let him play enough to reach type B free agent status for compensation in the offseason. However, how much trade value could he really have at this point? Adding to that, even if he does make it to Type B free agent classification there is no way he would not accept arbitration. Then we would have him for another year at possibly the same amount of money he is making now, which he isn’t worth. Tejada’s skills have greatly diminished, the warning signs were there, and I am one to say I told you so. Watching him play these days is excruciating, last night’s game aside.

This is just another reason the Orioles are inept. Josh Bell needs to play, if he isn’t going to play in the majors then he should be getting everyday at bats at Norfolk. He shouldn’t be sitting idle, Rhyne Hughes, Jeff Salazar or anyone else could do that. This is beyond ridiculous.

If you have a a minute, the long awaited article from Tony Pente over at Orioles Hangout has been posted. I’m about to read it myself and will post a reaction if I feel so inclined.

Thoughts at the break

The All-star break is brutal. I have to sit without real baseball for 3 days, and no Oriole’s baseball for 4 days. The All-star game itself, which I boycott, is a ridiculous joke for a dozen reasons at least. The home run derby is one of the most boring events in sports and I’m sure this year’s was no different. Seriously, Omar Infante was selected to the NL All-star team this year, the same Omar Infante who doesn’t start on his own team. Joey Votto, probably the MVP of the National League so far, had to be voted in for the final spot.

Yeah, the system to select All-Stars clearly works.

I would propose a system where the best players were chosen by their actual performance so far in the season. In my system the fans would vote on nothing and the teams would be picked completely by statistical analysis. This would get away from the current system where fans are encouraged to vote for their teams players and their favorites. Instead, the most deserving would be selected. Anything that gets the general public and general baseball “fans” opinion omitted is a good thing. I go to a lot of baseball games and I talk to baseball “fans” a lot. I have this conclusion, most of them have no idea what they are talking about and are not extremely intelligent. I’m willing to sacrifice my own ability to vote on the players in order for this to happen. In my system, we could use an advanced metric such as WAR to figure out the best players and select the teams this way. Under my plan, here are your starting lineups:

American League

C: Joe Mauer

1B:  Justin Morneau

2B: Robinson Cano

SS: Alex Gonzalez (That’s right. He’s been more valuable than Jeter, so has Cliff Pennington of the A’s. Marco Scutaro is even with the Golden Boy too.)

3B: Evan Longoria

LF: Carl Crawford

CF: Alex Rios

RF: Ben Zobrist

DH: Vladimir Guerrero

National League:

C: Brian McCann

1B: Joey Votto

2B: Chase Utley (since he is hurt, it’s Martin Prado)

SS: Hanley Ramirez

3B: David Wright

LF: Matt Holliday

CF: Andres Torres

RF: Ryan Ludwick

DH: Albert Pujols (sorted NL by batting runs and selected the first guy not in the lineup already)

Quite a bit different from the winners of the popularity contest. This is more in line with actual performance however, with both offense and defense taken into account.

Back to the Orioles, we are surging coming into the break winning 4 straight to sweep a road series with Texas. It has been a while since we have done that. I’m not sure if the break is a good thing or a bad thing. Some of the guys could use the rest and we have some guys real close to being healthy enough to return (Scott, Roberts, Gonzalez, Pie, Wieters) so that is a good thing. However, it would also have been nice to keep that positive momentum going for a little bit.

There’s not much positive to talk about at the “halfway” point in the season. Almost everyone has significantly underperformed expectations with the exceptions of Nick Markakis, Jason Berken, David Hernandez, Luke Scott, and Corey fucking Patterson. You may be able to include Adam Jones in that group soon but I expected a league average on base percentage and he hasn’t come close to that. Despite his recent hot streak, the guy has been an out machine this year, along with almost everyone else in the lineup. It’s been an awful half season, no doubt.

We are supposedly close to inking Buck Showalter as our next manager. I’m indifferent. To me, as long as they choose someone not named Rick Dempsey I’m fine with it.

I’m actually pretty excited about watching this team in the second half. Arrieta and Tillman have shown at least a little promise lately. We should be making some moves at the deadline which may add some excitement. We will be getting some guys back which could help us out a great deal. So, the question comes up as always, do we want to see the team win games in the second half or do we want the number one pick in the draft?

We are dangerously close to Pittsburgh catching up to us in the Anthony Rendon sweepstakes. The Pirates are now just one game behind us and we are well within quick striking distance of several other teams. Rendon is far and away the best talent in next years draft class, some analysts even prefer him to Bryce Harper. After that, the draft class is very solid and deep with talent. However, once again it is a very pitching heavy draft but we would still end up with a very solid prospect if we missed out on Rendon. So, I say win…we need to see some growth from our current players if we are ever going to be anything in the near future. So I want to see our core perform in the second half. I especially hope to see some drastic improvement from Wieters in particular and can we get Felix Pie to stay healthy for any amount of time? He is so fun to watch when he is on the field. Seriously, he better not end up being this guy:

What are you guys thinking about at the turn?

Totally Random

Well, that didn’t last long.

In typical fashion last night the bullpen made Matusz’s outing look worse than it was and he was pretty solid but still lost. The Orioles couldn’t score against Vin Dies..er Mazzaro last night and their winning streak was snapped at 4. The updates have been rather scarce lately since it gets old writing negative entry after negative entry. Now, there are some positive things to talk about. The most important is this:

Dustin Pedroia is hurt.

Please watch the video. It brings a tear of happiness to my eye every time. As most of you are aware by now, Dustin Pedroia is the least favorite player of every single writer on this blog. I hope his foot never heals…better yet I hope his foot becomes gangrenous, falls off, takes on a life of its own and kicks him in the crotch repeatedly until he is unable to procreate. Then I hope his foot goes Greyhound to New York and continues it’s rampage on.. well, everyone in New York.

Some more good news to report, we will likely never see Garrett Atkins again. I blasted that signing from the get go and this was long overdue. Atkins performed exactly how everyone but Andy MacPhail expected and I fully expect him to be out of major league baseball for the remainder of the year. I don’t even think Japan would have him at this point. Seriously, we would have been better off going with this guy in his place, or seriously even this guy may have done better. Garrett Atkins was awful, just awful and there is no excuse for his signing when there was every warning sign that this was what to expect. We jumped all over him early in the offseason for waaaay too much money and guys like Troy Glaus signed for less.  I can’t believe it took them this long to finally cut him loose. This is a guy that was losing playing time to Rhyne Fucking Hughes, how did he almost make it to July. Oh yeah, 4.5 million dollars. I guess it is unlikely the Orioles pick up that 8.5 million dollar option they had attached to it. They were really expecting the 2006 version of Garret Atkins huh? We still don’t have a home run hit by a first baseman this year, that has to be a record, thanks Garrett.

Zach Britton has been promoted to Triple A Norfolk after a dominant stretch at Bowie. We likely wont see him until next season but he is worth being excited about. After him however, our next best pitching prospects are probably two years out so he is it as far as starting pitching close to the majors goes. Felix Pie went 4-5 in his rehab game at Bowie last night and it appears he will be activated for the weekend series against the Red Sux. I am excited to see him, but I know some people aren’t. Pie is a controversial player it seems. He plays excellent defense, runs and throws well and his bat has really come alive since the first half of last season. The guy has loads of talent despite the occasional mental error. He is fun to watch and I am all for anything that puts Corey Fucking Patterson on the bench where he belongs.  I would just like to see them move Pie to center and put Adam Jones in left. Felix is the better defender and the advanced metrics bear that out.

There was a super sweet article in the Sun about the Orioles’ All Star game representative where Juan Samuel proved that he, much like Rick Dempsey, is an idiot. Juan Samuel declared that he would select Adam Jones as the Orioles representative. Really? Sorry Juan, Nick Markakis has clearly been our best player this season. Besides him, Ty Wigginton, and even Luke Scott have been more valuable players than Jones.  Jones had a mostly abysmal first half but was hot in June. His defense has looked pretty bad, and unfortunately his current hot streak will be unsustainable considering he is still showing downright laughable plate discipline. Sorry Juan, a guy with a on-base percentage of  .295 isn’t getting it done. Jones has walked 9(!!!!!!) times on the season. His strikeout to walk ratio now stands at 64/9. Until that improves this is what he will be. An overall poor hitter who will have a few hot weeks here and there. Jones still looks awful way too often swinging at terrible pitches. For me, the Orioles don’t have anyone worthy of being an All-Star, but in reality the teams are always littered with guys who shouldn’t be there (usually the ones voted in). But since we have to have one, Markakis is the guy for me. Yes, the average fan will wonder how a guy with 3 homers and 24 RBI made the team, but those people aren’t terribly smart. Markakis slash line of .306/.398/.431 looks pretty good to me. Yeah, you would like to see more homers but he is hitting plenty of doubles and is in range of his career numbers in everything else. I’ll call it a fluke. RBI? We still judge guys by those? Markakis has hit very well with runners on base and with runners in scoring position. The problem? The guys in front of him aren’t on enough for it to matter. The four guys leading up to Markakis on most nights are Julio Lugo (.299 OBP), Cesar Izturis (.279 OBP), Corey Patterson (.327 OBP), and Miguel Tejada (.313). How do you expect him to drive in a ton of runs if the only guys who get on base at a reasonable clip hit behind him? Not to mention that Adam Jones and Garrett Atkins also spent time in spots leading up to Markakis. The reality is that Markakis is not a middle of the order hitter anyway, he would be much better suited at number 2 or even 1 but we don’t have a better option on this team, so he is being judged unfairly. Not being a middle of the order hitter does not mean you are not a good one. By WAR, Markakis ranks first among all Orioles with 1.6, and by VORP he is also first on the team at 16.4, followed closely by Luke Scott at 16.2. I’m sure Juan Samuel is old school and looks at Jones’ homers and RBI and sees someone who has been more productive but it simply is not true. Jones has driven in more runs solely because he hits behind Markakis (.398 OBP), Wigginton (.351 OBP), and Scott (.335 OBP). This isn’t rocket science.

In other news, Carlos Zambrano is still crazy, B.J. Upton is still lazy and underperforming his talent level, and Yankee fans are getting what they deserve.

Most of the gang will be at tonight’s game. Come and find us out in right field if you are in attendance.

Arrieta, and dumb ass fans

As you all know, we don’t think all that highly of most Orioles fans and baseball fans in general. Most people who consider themselves to be baseball fans are what I file under “casual” fans. This means they have little to no understanding of the game, don’t know the names of the players on the team they “root” and know nothing at all about the other teams and players in the league. I won’t even get into their lack of understanding on elementary statistics and what they mean. In other words, these people are idiots, not unlike most of the American population in general.

Turn on 105.7 or read the standard idiotic comments on any MASN blog and you will hear many angry “fans” calling in to express their anger at the the Orioles calling up Jake Arrieta to start against the Yankees tonight. These same people will also be blowing up the phones to tell the radio announcers what a great manager Rick Dempsey would make. That’s all you need to know to know that someone has no idea what they are talking about. Anyone who has paid attention to the Orioles over the last few years know what idiotic things come out of Dempsey’s mouth on a daily basis. The guy may have been a contributing player on great Orioles teams but he clearly knows very little about today’s game, it’s players, and strategy. This is the same guy who said Reimold would hit 40 home runs this year and that Luis Hernandez was going to be a good hitter, much better than he was in the minor leagues, because big league pitchers throw more strikes. I’m not making that up, he really said those things. Rick Dempsey is a fine cheerleader, leave him be. His campaigning for the job is bordering on pathetic.

Back to Arrieta, is it ideal for him to make his debut against the Yankmees? Probably not, but the effects of this are being way overblown. The Orioles want to give Guthrie an extra day of rest and they need a starter. Arrieta has an ERA under 2 at AAA, he is 24, and he has about 1 full season of pitching at AAA under his belt. They feel he is ready and he is our best option right now. It is that simple. In reality, the Yankees are the best offensive team in the AL, but that really only means they score about 1 run per game more than an average team. That is significant, but not significant enough to shy away from starting a pitcher against them. The effect of one start, debut or not,  is minimal in the scope of an entire career. If Arrieta gets bombed, it is one start. If he has a successful debut, it is still one start.  A young player’s debut does not make or break his career. Far too many of these people are pointing out the Nationals debuting Stephen Strasburg against the Pirates. Guess what so knowing baseball fans? The Nationals were waiting to be past the super 2 date to save money. This date was estimated to be June 6th this year. What was the Nationals first game after that date? the June 8th game against the Pirates. The move was purely coincidence. There is a very logical reason that Stephen Strasburg debuted for the Nationals, and Mike Stanton debuted for the Marlins on the same night and it has zippy to do with the competition they were facing. So let’s all stop being a bunch of whiny bitches who are scared of the Yankees and send our best option out to face them. Arrieta is not a player that even remotely lacks confidence and I’m sure he would rather debut against the Yankees than anyone else.

What I am interested in is who gets moved to make room for Arrieta on the roster. The Orioles were talking of moving Bergesen to the bullpen for the time being and have now said that Ohman will be moved back to a situational role. That most likely means that Castillo being shuttled back to Norfolk is likely, you could also make a strong case for finally getting rid of Fat Albers. I think what we may see in another surpisie move to go with many is that Bergesen is moved back to AAA to start. I could not argue much with that decision as Bergesen has pretty much thrown batting practice all seasn and now has lost his command as well. I would still like to see some shuffling in the bullpen. Gambino and Sarfate have been pitching well at Norfolk and Hendrickson, Albers, and Castillio have all been getting bombed in Baltimore. At least something is worth watching tonight…

Draft Results

Here is a recap of the Orioles draft through the early rounders, since I can bet all 3 of you who will read this don’t care much about 30th round draft picks. I will include scouting information fro MLB where available. I’m also linking to some great writeups they did over at oriolesprospects.com. Go check the site out.

As expected, the Orioles took Manny Machado with the third overall pick in the draft. I have already given information an a link to his scouting report in the earlier post so we will skip him.

2nd round: As noted, the Orioles did not have a second round pick this year because they prudently signed Mike Gonzalez, a type A free agent, to a 2 year 12 million dollar contact. It is working out very well so far.

3rd round: Daniel Klein, RHP, UCLA

4th round: Trent Mummey, OF, Auburn

5th round: Connor Narron, SS, C.B. Aycock HS

6th round: Dixon Anderson, RHP, Cal

7th round: Matthew Bywater, LHP, Pepperdine

8th round: Wynston Sawyer, C, Scripps Ranch HS

9th round: Parker Bridwell, RHP, Hereford HS.  Not much info available on this kid, unless you want his football scouting report. He is a top college football QB recruit. He has a pretty sweet myspace page though.

10th round: Clayton Schrader, RHP, San Jacinto College North

After reviewing the later round picks it appears that the Orioles are going pitching heavy in the draft once again which was to be expected. We also appear to have taken a lot of junior college players, as well as players with two last names. It is an interesting strategy and one to keep an eye on over the next couple of seasons. I think that sort of innovation is what we need.

2nd Annual Draft Day Report

Draft day is upon us once again and it comes on an off day for the O’s. I will be watching the draft on the MLB network again. I’m hoping to be a little more enthused by our draft than I was last year. Last year we selected high school right hander Matt Hobgood with the fifth overall pick. I have expressed my opinion on that pick in several blog entries which you have probably read. Hobgood is looking more and more like a flop everyday and most analysts agreed with me that the pick was a reach and a pure “signability” pick to save some cash. He clearly was not the best player on the board. We then used our second rounder on another pick most analysts did not like in high school shortstop Mychal Givens, who had questionable offensive skills. Givens struggled early this season and then suffered an injury which required surgery and his season is most likely lost. Our 3rd round pick Tyler Townsend, a college first baseman with power potential has struggled since his debut and has also not stayed healthy for any significant time. Last year’s draft is not shaping up well so far.

This year’s draft is also looking to be a little bit disappointing already as well. Bryce Harper, the 17 year old phenom, is a lock to go first overall to the Washington Nationals. Early concerns about his character were said to be overblown and the Nationals have said they have seen absolutely no reason not to take him. I will say however that it is quite clear the kid is a bit of an asshole (as shown here and here), which makes me like him more. It was long predicted by most analysts that the Pittsburgh Pirates would pass on the consensus second best talent, high school pitcher Jameson Taillon with the second pick due to cost concerns and they were leaning towards picking high school shortstop Manny Machado or college left hander Drew Pomeranz instead.  New reports from the last couple of days have all but confirmed that the Pirates will select Taillon with the second pick. This pretty much confirms that the Orioles will go with Machado at no. 3. Machado is still a very promising prospect and has all the tools to eventually be an impact player. However, there are concerns that he will not be able to stay at shortstop and that his power may not develop enough to be a great bat as a corner infielder. I would definitely prefer the early reports that suggested Taillon would fall to us.

From there things really go south. As most of you probably know, the Orioles do not have a second round pick this year as it was given away to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for signing their Type A free agent, Mike “The Save Siduation” Gonzalez. We all know that I hated the signing when it occurred due to cost and the loss of the pick. It looks even worse now. Hopefully, the O’s can score some early round talent later in the draft with some overslot bonus’s to coax some kids out of school. I will probably be tweeting my thoughts on everyone’s draft live if you want to follow me. I’ll post something about the results shortly after.

It’s about damn time

As most of you have heard by now, the Orioles have officially dismissed Dave Trembley as manager of the ballclub. I wish Dave well, he seems like a pretty decent guy and has said all the right things during this ever continuing downward spiral but this was way overdue. I didn’t like it when he was originally named the manager and his interim tag was removed, and then I really didn’t like it when he was given an extension. Trembley’s in-game strategy and tactics were awful. His management of the bullpen bordered on straight up insanity. He played matchups far too strictly and cemented pitchers into roles despite saying he didn’t want to do that. Cases in point: Jason Berken has been an effective reliever this season, one of our most effective. He was cast as a long man and would go long stretches of not pitching at all because he would only be used in early exits by the starter (which we haven’t had that many of this season). Matt Albers, Mark Hendrickson, and Cla Meredith have not been effective relievers this season. Matt Albers seems to have a spot on the roster cemented and he keeps being brought into high leverage situation despite continued failure. He leads the fucking team in appearances! Really?!?! Matt Albers is your relief ace Trembley. This organization needs to sack up and start converting some failed starters into relivers. We don’t have room on the big club for all the starting prospects that are on their way anyway. They did a good thing by finally moving Hernandez there as Jjaks pointed out. At first it looked like he was going to assume the splinter-ass role that Berken had been in until they did bring him into a tight situation against New York on Monday. He pitched well enough to get them out of the jam but Miguel Tejada pulled a Miguel Tejada and threw a routine ball into the dirt and Ty Wigginton did his best Ty Wigginton and couldn’t pick it. Prior to that he had barely been used and other less effective guys were getting more work. Hernandez has power stuff and he can be a dominant force in the pen, they need to take off the kid gloves and find out. I think they will like what happens. Despite that we are getting about league average innings pitched per start out of our our starters, Trembley was still leading the league in pitching changes last I checked, he continually found ways to find the reliever that was going to be ineffective that night. No matter how good a guy looked as soon as a guy came to the plate on the opposite side that pitcher was getting pulled. It became quite ridiculous. When you get 5 different pitchers into every game you are going to find at least one who just doesn’t have it that night. It is the nature of pitching, especially relief pitching.

Stolen from the epic Trembley meme thread from OH

Dave Trembley’s lineup tendencies have also been on the crazy side as well. Nick Markakis is a 2 hitter. His career numbers profile best as a top of the order hitter, not a middle of the order hitter. Granted, Trembley doesn’t have much as far as middle of the order threats this year since what was supposed to be our middle of the order hitters going forward (Wieters, Reimold) flopped big time. We do have two hitters that would be better suited than Nick in Wigginton and Scott. They are also opposite handed hitters which would make it easier to hit them 3 and 4 respectively. Trembley however finds it much more logical to bat them in the bottom half of the lineup most of the year and now has seen fit to bat Tejada at 2 instead of at 4 where he has been most of the year, despite that he is a double play machine and can’t get on base. Ideally, Tejada is at the bottom of the lineup or not playing for the Orioles at all (my preference since I blasted his and Atkins signing). In the end lineup order doesn’t make that much of a difference but it’s still mildly frustrating. what is really frustrating is having to watch Lugo and Izturis in the same lineup ever. Brian can’t get back soon enough, luckily it appears he is on track for a return in the middle of June. that will force out Atkins and Lugo. I hope it actually means the end of Atkins roster spot altogether, he is as horrible as everyone but Andy MacPhail expected. I don’t expect the team to fare much better under Samuel but they may just by getting guys back from injury in the coming days. At this point I’ll take Anthony Rendon in the 2011 draft, fuck it. Speaking of the draft, how awesome a time did the Nationals pick to be brutally bad? Getting two once in a lifetime type prospects in consecutive drafts? That has to feel pretty good right now.

With Trembley now gone I’m sure it will take me no time to start bitching about Juan Samuel, the good news is he probably won’t have the job long enough for any real outcry from me. That is my hope anyway, I also hope to see some urgency from the players, someone get a little pissed off that you got a decent human being fired and do something about it. I also hope that Terry Crowley’s position is really being looked at as well. This teams approach at the plate is beyond bad and has been for years. Is the cause that Crowley teaches an overly aggressive style or is it that the Orioles target overly aggressive hitters? I think it is probably a combination of both. Either way I think it time for a change in philosophy organization wide. You get on base, you score runs, it is a simple concept. The Orioles are last in the league in pitches per plate appearance, they are also last in runs per game…

What is most depressing about the team this year is it wasn’t just Orioles fans that were optimistic as in most past years. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus both had us taking big steps forward. Our recent prospects are getting national attention like never before, and we are failing worse than ever before. What the fuck is going on?

Absolutely Brutal

Man, this team is unwatchable right now. Seriously who actually thought we would be this bad offensively. I predicted a slightly above average offense and so did most of the major projection systems. Sooo many of our players are under performing it would be comical, if it wasn’t so sad.

As I said before, the offense has been bad…. and I mean really bad. What is really amazing is that we are only the second worst offense in the AL right now. The Seattle Mariners have been worse, though they were expected to be a very bad run scoring team. We really weren’t. Sure, the offense misses Brian Roberts but I think his impact is being overblown by a lot of people. If Roberts were healthy and performing, we would have seen a lot less of Ty Wigginton, who has been our best run producer so far this year. He has also played respectable defense at second base, which is really all that Roberts does at this point in his career. Would we be better off with say Roberts at second and Wiggy at first? Absolutely, but who knows how it would have played out without Roberts injuries forcing Wigginton into the lineup everyday. Nick Markakis has been solid along with Wigginton, and Miguel Tejada has been respectable, even though the amount of pitches he sees, isn’t. Luke Scott and Nolan Reimold have greatly underperformed their ability. Garrett Atkins has been the Garrett Atkins nearly everyone but Andy MacPhail expected. Adam Jones has been horrendous in all facets of the game. Cesar Izturis, already an embarrassingly bad hitter has been bad even by his standards and the defense I have seen does not begin to make up for it. I’m again bringing back my claim that Robert Andino should be bought up and be playing over him, he isn’t good either but he is much more entertaining and there is some upside that he could approach being an average shortstop. I don’t believe either Lugo or Izturis have that upside. Matt Wieters has mostly put up an empty batting average and while he has certainly been respectable when you compare his numbers to other catchers, you can’t help but be disappointed in him so far. He has not shown anything yet that resembles what he is supposed to be as one of the best minor league prospects of the last 20 years.

The entire team’s approach at the plate has been horrible. Far too many players are not seeing any pitches, they are not working the count, and are getting themselves out swinging at anything and everything the pitcher throws at them. What’s even better? Trembley insists on batting the least disciplined hitters at the top of the lineup. It’s a brilliant strategy to have the guys that make the most outs at the top of the order, and it’s working out tremendously. Seriously, the O’s are last in the league in on base percentage, the statistic that correlates most closely with scoring runs….we are last. Is it any wonder why we are not scoring runs? Poor plate discipline has been a staple of the Orioles hitters throughout this twelve year drought.  Isn’t it time some heat is placed on Terry Crowley? At some point, you have to wonder where the swing at everything mentality is coming from. Maybe the Orioles have just drafted and acquired a bunch of guys who can’t tell balls from strikes, or maybe it is being taught to them to be this aggressive. I think it is about time we find out which it is, with all the coaching changes this team constantly goes through, Crowley has always stayed… maybe it is time we move away from him too.

At this point, if everything stays as is and we keep playing this way I propose a total youth movement. Bring up Bell, Arrieta, and Tillman. Move Bergesen and Hernandez to the bullpen. Shop Guthrie, Wigginton, Tejada, and Millwood. We need more young talent and more positional depth, lets’ get it.

In other news, Andy MacPhail will be releasing a web video to the fans today at some point on orioles.com, and Corey Patterson is expected to be called up for round 2 to replace either Nolan Reimold or Lou Montanez on the roster. I hope for sanity’s sake it is Montanez who has no place on the team right now, which is why I totally expect it to be Reimold. I’ll be waiting with baited breath for both…

MASN needs more of this…

Cleveland sportscaster Bruce Drennan lost his shit on the air a few days ago when lamenting the Cleveland Indians 5-4 loss to Toronto on Wedesnday. The Indians have been struggling mightily as expected and had just finished blowing a two run lead in the 9th inning. Enjoy.

I personally would love to see this kind of honesty on MASN but obviously a Orioles owned sports network would not tolerate this and this guy would have been fired halfway through his rant. Someone visible definitely needs to make fun of these guys a little bit.

A very proud moment

In Orioles fan news, one of our own did something that should make all of us very proud. I only hope he is one of the 4 people that read this blog.

He threw Jorge Posada’s homer from last night’s game all the way back into the infield. My colleagues and I have always joked about trying to hit the umpire or infielders with the ball if we ever were lucky enough to catch one, but it hasn’t happened. This dude lived our fantasy and even got a spotlight on mlb.com’s video archive for it. Check it out here.

Well done sir, you have our respect.

Gregg Zaun = Rube Baker?

This was so hilarious it has to be posted.

Who isn’t a huge fan of the Major League movies? If you are not, get the fuck off of this blog. Hopefully, you are all still here because this is awesome. Gregg Zaun apparently had some real trouble throwing the ball back to the pitcher last night, you may recall the legendary catcher Rube Baker having the same issue in the classic Major League 2.  Watch and laugh.

Perhaps Zauny should start reciting dirty magazine articles  to get himself straightened out. (Pun intended)